aka "The Bullshit Police"
You have an idea. You think people want to buy your widget or service. That's nice.
Now you need to answer one question: Is your idea bullshit?
Don't build a website. Don't print business cards. Don't hire a guru. A business only happens when you exchange something for money. This plan tests that exchange as quickly and cheaply as possible.
Checkpoint One: The Interest Test
Goal: Determine if people are genuinely interested in your Offer. Not your friends. Not your mum. Real, unbiased strangers.
The Test: The $50 Ad Test
- Traffic: 2,000 people. Buy a small, targeted audience on a platform like Facebook or Instagram.
- Offer: A simple post. A headline. A "coming soon" image. A description of the benefit you provide. Nothing fancy.
- Action: Ask for a tiny commitment. "Sign up for the waitlist." "Click to learn more." "Drop your email."
The Result:
If you show your Offer to 2,000 people and no one cares. no clicks, no signups, no engagement. you don't have a Traffic problem. You have an Offer problem. Your promise isn't compelling enough to earn even a moment of attention.
Do not proceed until you can get strangers to show interest.
This doesn't mean your business idea is dead. It means your current Offer. the way you're presenting the value. isn't resonating. Go back to Mastering Your Offer, rethink the promise, and test again. Change the headline. Change the framing. Connect to a different Core Human Driver. Test until something clicks.
Checkpoint Two: The Sales Test
Goal: See if a real human will actually give you money for your Offer.
The Test: Talk to people.
You've proven interest. Now get those interested people on a Zoom call, a phone call, or in a room.
- Ask them what they're struggling with.
- Listen. Actually listen.
- Offer your solution. Explain how it solves their specific problem.
- Explain how much it costs.
- Ask for the sale: "Is solving that problem worth [your price] to you?"
The Result:
If you can't get one person to buy, you don't have a business. You have a hobby.
This is where you learn from history. sales is the oldest profession. The ability to look someone in the eye (or over a screen) and exchange value for money is the most fundamental test of a business idea.
If you can sell it to one person, congratulations. You have proof of concept. You know your Offer solves a real problem that someone will pay to fix. Now you need to know if the economics work.
Checkpoint Three: The Math Test
Goal: Determine if your business can be viable and profitable.
The Test: Do the maths.
You've proven interest (Checkpoint 1) and you've made a sale (Checkpoint 2). Now answer:
- What does it cost to get one customer? Add up everything: ad spend, your time, tools, materials. This is your Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC).
- What does one customer pay you? Not just the first transaction. the total value over their relationship with you. This is your Lifetime Value (LTV).
- Is LTV meaningfully higher than CAC? If it costs you $200 to acquire a customer who generates $600 over time, you have a 3:1 ratio. That's a viable business. If it costs $200 to acquire a customer worth $250, you have a problem.
The Result:
If the maths works, you have a validated business. Not an idea. Not a hope. A tested, proven model where you know: people are interested, people will buy, and the economics sustain growth.
If the maths doesn't work, you have three options: reduce acquisition cost (better Traffic targeting), increase the price or value of your Offer, or increase customer retention. These are specific, diagnosable problems. not vague "marketing isn't working" frustrations.
Why This Matters
The 3-Checkpoint Plan exists because most businesses skip validation entirely. They go from "I have an idea" to "I've spent $50,000 on a website, inventory, and a marketing agency" without ever testing whether anyone would pay.
That's not business. That's gambling. Expensive gambling.
Each checkpoint costs almost nothing. a $50 ad test, a few conversations, a spreadsheet. But the information they provide is worth thousands in avoided waste.
This is Validation at its most practical. First principles thinking applied to the most basic question: is this bullshit, or is this real?
What Comes After Validation
Once you've passed all three checkpoints, you have a validated Traffic + Offer equation. Now you can invest with confidence:
→ Pull the Traffic Lever. scale up with paid or organic → Decode Your Traffic. find more of the right people → Build Organic Authority. create a long-term engine → Back to the equation. Traffic + Offer = Results